A model-based long-term scenario analysis in consideration of structural changes in electricity demand
Hrsg.: Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe
2015, 272 S., 68 illus. and 35 tab., Softcover
Karlsruhe, KIT, Diss., 2015
Demand Response (DR) is an option to integrate the increasing share of electricity generation from renewable sources into the energy system by actively adjusting the demand behaviour of electricity consumers. However, prior to the large scale implementation of DR measures, it is crucial to understand the long-term potential of DR in the German energy system. This thesis provides a holistic analysis of the future DR potential, considering the individual DR end-uses and their respective techno-economic constraints in combination with a focus on the national system load and potential DR programmes. The analysis builds upon the eLOAD (electricity load curve adjustment) model, which is developed in the framework of this thesis. eLOAD is a bottom-up simulation model with embedded optimisation elements. It assesses the long-term evolution of a country's hourly system load curve by making use of a database containing more than 600 end-use specific load profiles. eLOAD quantifies the DR potentials by reproducing the load adjustment of a variety of individual end-uses. Coupling eLOAD with an electricity market model allows analysing the impact of DR on the electricity supply side.